Bob Caswell - Latest Comments in Breaking: Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

Re: Breaking: Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

bobcaswell — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:23:20 -0000

here via here. To give some background, this is what I'm responding to:

"Personally, I think the Microsoft and Yahoo matchup is like two tired swimmers who bump into each other and then wind up drowning each other in their scramble to survive. But Yahoo will be the first to go under in this embrace.
...
Just smells like this decades AOL/Time matchup. It will go through. Microsoft will remove one competitor, but it won't work. It won't be enough to stop the future."

And my response:

My only issue with this is that it is ultra-simplistic and limited in scope. Basically:

"AOL/Time didn't work out like they hoped, and this is similar."

That's it? One example of a failure is enough to doom this deal? What about the fact, that, statistically speaking, Wall Street thrives on Mergers and Acquisitions?

This isn't the first time two big companies have decided to join forces, and it won't be the last. And the outcome is often very positive (or else no one would do it) even if the failures get most the press.

I'm just saying that most of the "this won't work" commentary is backed by little more than the "they're two big companies with different cultures and overlapping products" excuse.

But you could say that about any big company X merging with company Y. Bottom line: if there is limited correlation between the variable of "failures" and the variable of "big company mergers," well, I'm going to need to see a different variable as the scapegoat of this supposed failure before I believe any "can't stop the future" rhetoric (what does that even mean, btw?).

Re: Breaking: Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

Paul Ellis — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 11:22:27 -0000

two links, I am actually a lot more confident that this could work out well, and is well timed for Microsoft. So many properties won't be that bad to integrate (maps, email, IM, games, personal homepage, widgets, pipes/popfly, advertising). In fact you can already cross network message between Yahoo and Microsoft. Some products might not get touched much (Flickr, delicious), and some will get axed (who uses Yahoo 360?).

Re: Breaking: Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

bobcaswell — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 09:46:26 -0000

Good point, Paul. Not sure how the branding problem will be worked out... Although, Microsoft has probably learned a thing or two after their own issues with Live/MSN. Whatever the case, this will be very interesting and fun to watch!

Re: Breaking: Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion for Yahoo

Paul Ellis — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 09:40:59 -0000

You know, I don't know what I think about this. It has been in the rumor mill so long that it didn't seem like it would happen. How will they sort out the substantial overlap between MSN and Yahoo? I know everyone thinks that Google is so big and powerful that they can't be toppled, but if any company can it is Microsoft. Maybe this Yahoo acquisition help them do that.