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And the more I think on it, the more I think you and Saul are dead on regarding Blu-Ray's competition. Upconverting will be the way to HD for a lot of consumers who buy mostly on price.
I don't know the exact ratios, but many HD DVDs are actually dual format and work as regular DVDs as well. I think about half of my freebies (from when I went for this deal) are this way. And that was just on accident (I didn't make sure to pick only the dual discs).
This is totally false. There is no "latest generation of DVD players" that can generate a high-definition picture from an SD disc. They can upconvert the 480 lines to 1080 lines, but so can your TV.
No matter how you slice it, you're still stuck with 480 lines of original resolution. You can't make something out of nothing, and while upconverting standard DVDs can make them look slightly better, they are in no way, shape, or form anywhere near HD quality. Not even close.